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The looming impacts of climate change are increasingly raising questions about the future of Miami‘s real estate, particularly from residents who wonder what will happen to their property as the sea level rises.

Seeing a need for a user-friendly, visual platform where property owners can see what might happen to their land and how they can deal with future problems, Miami is receiving a $100,000 grant to develop a new tool the city hopes will help the average resident understand the risks and options for dealing with rising waters.

The city was awarded the money from Bloomberg Philanthropies’ Mayors Challenge, which grants dollars to cities to solve complex urban problems. In Miami‘s case, city officials want to wrangle various data sets together to create a prototype for an interactive tool that would allow property owners to understand their risks in the coming decades and see what different mitigation strategies might look like.

The city has a lofty goal of integrating data from different sources — sea rise projections, rainfall numbers, tidal measurements, analyzed alongside economic factors and effects of upgraded infrastructure — to construct a platform that can be shared freely with anyone. According to the grant application, Miami‘s administration hopes to build a platform that can be used across the region.

“We have the most assets at risk to storm and sea level rise related flooding than any other metropolitan area in the world,” reads Miami’s grant application. “However, our residents do not haveclear understanding of the risks related to sea level rise, particularly as it relates to their specific property, how they can mitigate those risks over time, and how to stay informed and engaged on city land usecode and infrastructure planning that may also mitigate those risks.”

Jane Gilbert, Miami‘s chief resilience officer, told the Miami Herald the goal is to provide the average person meaningful information in an easy-to-use format.

“The idea is as the city upgrades its infrastructure, it wants to inform residents and to help them think about what they can do and how they can prepare for sea level rise,” Gilbert said.

The private sector has already broached this territory through services that sell information and individualized assessments to property owners, but the city’s ambitions are broader. Gilbert and Michael Sarasti, chief innovation officer, envision a tool that would include projected economic impacts of sea rise, from changing real estate values to disappearing jobs, and a way to visualize the impact of pending legislation.

The $100,000 grant is meant to fund a prototype platform that can serve as the basis for a larger grant application later this year to complete development. For that larger, multimillion-dollar grant, Sarasti said Miami was encouraged to partner with Miami Beach, which received its own $100,000 Bloomberg grant in February for a similar project.

The Beach is working on a prototype that will focus on integrating meteorological and tidal predictions to reduce risks to people and property. Later this year, both cities plan to combine their efforts to vie for more dollars to develop a highly sophisticated program that will aid governments and private citizens in making decisions on how to prepare for sea level rise.

 

Source: Miami Herald

Homes at higher elevations in Miami are gaining value at a faster clip than those closer to sea level.

It’s an accelerating trend, and it has residents and real estate agents — in Miami and other coastal communities — asking whether “climate gentrification” has arrived. The term, which only recently entered the lexicon, describes the role of climate change in recalibrating land values, a phenomenon that ultimately could displace low-income and minority residents in a similar fashion as urban gentrification. As sea levels rise and flooding persists, the thinking goes in the case of Miami, waterfront property will lose some of its luster and higher-situated neighborhoods like Little Haiti and Little Havana will become more attractive.

The professor who was first to publish research using the phrase “climate gentrification” isn’t convinced that’s the main culprit in Miami. At least not yet. Jesse M. Keenan, a researcher on urban development and climate adaptation at Harvard’s Graduate School of Design, tracked the rate of price appreciation since 1971 for more than 250,000 residential properties in Miami-Dade County, and compared those figures to elevation. Keenan found that properties at high elevations have long appreciated faster in Miami, mostly because of nonclimate factors.

However, since 2000, the correlation between elevation and price appreciation has grown stronger, which Keenan, in an interview with CBS MoneyWatch, suggested may be “early signaling” of preference for properties at higher elevations and a reaction to persistent nuisance flooding in lower areas.

His prediction: Over the next 10 years, climate change will become a more significant factor in the real estate market for many cities. He expects a “slow burn” toward a tipping point — similar to the foreclosure crisis — when all of a sudden values drop precipitously for high-risk properties.

“This is real,” Keenan said. “There are actual people spending lots of money thinking about how to make money from climate change. We have to come to terms with this sooner than later.”

Keenan tracks at least three “pathways” to climate gentrification, and the variations stem in part from the “location, location, location” mantra of real estate. The three scenarios:

  • Low-risk properties surge in value, fueling a migration from high-exposure areas, causing displacement. This isn’t just a sea-level issue: California’s wildfires, for instance, are likely to lead to significant changes in how real estate is valued. “Anything related to climate change,” Keenan explained. “Low exposure is the determinate.”
  • Living in high-exposure areas gets so expensive (think taxes, insurance, etc) that only rich people can live there, pushing historically mixed-income areas (such as Miami Beach, Florida, and Hampton Roads, Virginia) to become more exclusive.
  • Government investments in resilience have the unintended consequence of boosting land and property values that wind up displacing populations. Sea-level fortifications on the Lower East Side of Manhattan could have this affect, Keenan said.

What’s at stake?

“People’s lives, their livelihoods and their culture,” said Mustafa Santiago Ali, senior vice president of climate, environmental justice and community revitalization for the Hip Hop Caucus, a nonprofit that connects the Hip Hop community to civic life.

Ali, who previously spent 24 years in various roles at the Environmental Protection Agency, said it’s fairly easy to predict who the winners will be as climate gentrification takes hold — led both by one-time events such as hurricanes and the more gradual process of sea-level rise. The answer, of course, is wealthier people.

“Who has the resources? Who has the access?” Ali asked in an interview with MoneyWatch. “Who has the education to understand what’s coming and navigate that?”

One key to ensuring a more equitable outcome is making sure communities are heard, are involved in development, including “adaptation” measures to accommodate climate change, and have avenues to take advantage of rising property values, Ali said. In fact, climate will be a focus area of a new initiative of the Hip Hop Caucus set for launch in spring that targets vulnerable communities.

In Miami, residents of some inland coastal neighborhoods that sit at comparatively high elevations, including Little Haiti, worry that rising property values fueled by sea-level increases could price them out, as PRI reported last week.

Developers have proposed three new projects in the Little Haiti neighborhood that could push immigrants and people of color out, activist Valencia Gunder told PRI.

“In Miami, historically because of racism, redlining and segregation, all of the brown and black people were forced to live in the center of the city, which also happens to be the high elevated areas,” she told PRI. “So, they pushed us here because they didn’t want us on the beach.”

For some buyers these days, the beach looks like a better place to visit than to live. And it’s not just coastal areas that could face consequences of “climate gentrification.” Coastal residents are likely to flock to inland cities in droves — with Austin, Texas; Orlando, Florida; and Atlanta likely to gain the most new residents, according to a study by Mathew Hauer published by the journal Nature in April.

The study, which considers a sea-level rise of about six feet by the year 2100, forecasts a migration of as many as 13 million people (double the total of the Great Migration), with more than 2.5 million fleeing the region that includes Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. New Orleans would lose about 500,000 people, the study predicts, and the New York City area would lose 50,000 people.

That doesn’t mean coastal areas would empty out. History shows people will always want to live near the water, noted Joel Myers, founder and president of commercial weather service AccuWeather Inc.

Sea levels have been rising for thousands of years, he added, and even as that rise accelerates, the other side of the coin is there’s less waterfront land available to purchase. A simple formula of supply and demand.

Click here to view the CBS MoneyWatch video ‘Climate Gentrification Could Add Value To Elevation In Real Estate’

 

Source: CBS News

It’s up to developers and city officials to protect projects in Miami Beach from the threat of global sea level rise, architect Reinaldo Borges warned an audience gathered inside a conference room at the W South Beach on Thursday.

“Developers need to change their perspective,” Borges said. “They go in with a short-term investment mentality. That mindset has to change.”

Business leaders discuss sea level rise at the Miami Beach Community Resiliency Summit

Business leaders discuss sea level rise at the Miami Beach Community Resiliency Summit

Borges, a principal of Borges & Associates Architects, lamented that hotel projects his firm worked on like the Royal Palm Miami Beach and the Bentley Beach Hotel will be negatively impacted by sea level rise. Before new projects break ground, Borges suggested city officials find ways to provide developers with incentives if they build structures at a higher elevation.

The Miami-based architect was part of a panel of business community leaders at the Miami Beach Community Resiliency Summit Friday morning. Other speakers such as Wendy Kallergis, president and CEO of the Greater Miami and the Beaches Hotel Association, and Gabriole Van Bryce, a member of the association’s sustainable hospitality council, talked about successful efforts to convince builders and owners to make their properties greener.

“We have really helped hotels reduce the impact of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions,” Van Bryce said. “We want to further reduce the effects of greenhouse emissions by promoting a cool roof initiative to place local gardens on rooftops.”

Al Roker, host and weatherman for NBC’s “Today Show,” kicked off the summit by providing attendees with a few cold hard facts about climate change. “In the next 50 years, Miami’s high tide will be five feet higher,” Roker said. “At the city’s 100th anniversary concert last night, I told the crowd, ‘I hope you’re enjoying this now because where you are standing now will be underwater one day.’”  The popular morning show personality also said the mainstream media made a mistake by coining the term “global warming,” instead of using “climate change.”

Following his presentation, Roker told The Real Deal that developers, city officials, and residents have to work together to address the real threat of climate change. “Everybody should be concerned,” Roker said. “Are buildings ready? Is the infrastructure ready? Those are all real concerns condo owners, private property owners, businesses and everybody should be concerned about.”

 

Source: The Real Deal