Miami Realtors Pitch ‘Safe Spaces’ For Millionaires Fleeing A Zohrain Mamdani’s New York

In the days leading up to New York’s mayoral election, Miami real estate circles have been buzzing about what some are calling the “Mamdani Effect.”

Luxury developer Isaac Toledano, CEO of BH Group, joked that “a lot of Floridians are going to give Mamdani an award for being the best broker of the year,” referring to the anticipated flight of wealthy New Yorkers to Florida if democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani wins the race for mayor.

Toledano who is the developer of projects such as the Ritz-Carlton Residences in West Palm Beach said his firm has signed more than $100 million in contracts with New Yorkers over the past four months, roughly double last year’s total. Other developers, however, say it is still too soon to measure the full impact of political uncertainty on high-end real estate demand.

Concerns about Mamdani’s progressive policies have circulated since his surprise victory in the June Democratic primaries. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman, one of Mamdani’s most vocal critics, has warned that his tax and regulatory agenda could prompt an exodus of companies and individuals from the city.

Miami brokers report that inquiries from New Yorkers have risen as clients worry about potential tax hikes and a less business-friendly environment under a Mamdani administration. The candidate has proposed raising New York’s corporate tax rate from 7.25% to 11.5% and increasing taxes on millionaires. In contrast, Florida’s 5.5% corporate rate, lack of personal income tax, and year-round warm weather make it an appealing destination.

Edgardo Defortuna, CEO of Fortune Group, said one New York buyer recently purchased a luxury condo in North Miami Beach as a “safety base” should Mamdani win.

Sharon Novotny, senior vice president at Douglas Elliman, said her firm has intensified marketing campaigns aimed at New Yorkers, noting that even buyers outside the U.S. are reacting. At a recent property fair in Mexico City, for example, Latin American clients said they were considering moving quickly before a potential influx of New York buyers.

Despite the hype, major property platforms show little concrete evidence of a surge. Realtor.com data show searches from Manhattan for South Florida homes were down 5% year-on-year in the third quarter, while Zillow reported a slight dip in Miami page views from New York users compared with last September. Costar analyst Juan Arias expects any migration uptick to be “marginal.”

Some brokers point to earlier moves by financial heavyweights like Ken Griffin, who relocated Citadel from Chicago to Miami in 2022, and Carl Icahn’s shift from New York to South Florida, as proof that Wall Street is taking Miami seriously. Still, Arias suggests brokers may be eager to emphasize this narrative at a time when slower international migration has cooled the local apartment market.

“The initial reaction from wealthy New Yorkers after the primaries was much stronger,” said Corcoran broker Kirsten Jordan. “Now we’re in wait-and-see mode.”

 

Source: Financial Times